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Politics & Risk

Briefing

1. Need to Know2. Risks & Constraints3. Money Matters4. Local Knowledge5. Political Weather6. ItinerariesQuestions
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National Assembly Building of Vietnam, Hanoi

Section 5 of 6

The Political Weather

How the current political environment affects business.

Next: Itineraries
Politics

Twelve years of political weather

The events that moved the risk picture. Vietnam's list is longer, and most of it is recent.

SingaporeVietnam

  1. Singapore

    Little India riot

  2. Vietnam

    Anti-China factory riots

  3. Vietnam

    Land lease and cyber law protests

  4. Vietnam

    President resigns

  5. Vietnam

    Typhoon Yagi

  6. Singapore

    Ex-minister jailed

  7. Both countries

    US emergency-powers tariffs

  8. Singapore

    General election

  9. Vietnam

    14th Party Congress

  10. Both countries

    US Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs

  11. Vietnam

    National Assembly election

  12. Vietnam

    US names Vietnam a Priority Foreign Country

  13. Both countries

    12.5% US tariff under Section 301

  14. Vietnam

    FTSE emerging-market upgrade due

TransparencyCorruption

Transparency and corruption in practice

Corruption Perceptions Index, 20250 to 100, higher is cleaner
Parliament House, Singapore, with the Downtown Core behind it

Singapore

Clean, and proves it in public. A former minister was jailed in 2024, the first such trial in nearly fifty years.

National Assembly Building of Vietnam, Hanoi

Vietnam

A real purge, with a side effect. Officials delay decisions to avoid exposure. Expect the courtesy of delay.

Trade

Between Washington and Beijing

For both countries, what matters most with the US and what matters most with China point in different directions.

  1. United StatesLargest investor and defence partner.

    Singapore

    ChinaLargest trading partner since 2013.

  2. United StatesBiggest export market, at US$153 billion.

    Vietnam

    ChinaSupplies 40% of imports; both sides pledged calm at sea in 2025.

Trade

The agreements that set the terms

Both are in the big regional deals; beyond them they part ways.

AgreementSingaporeVietnamNote
CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership)12 economies; in force for Vietnam since 2019.
RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)15 Asia-Pacific countries including China; in force for Vietnam since 2022.
EU–Singapore FTAOne of Singapore's 29 free trade agreements in force.
EU–Vietnam FTA (EVFTA)In force since 2020.
UK–Vietnam CEPAIn force since 2025.
US–Singapore FTAIn force since 2004; the first US free trade agreement with an Asian country.
China–Singapore FTAFurther upgrade in force from 31 December 2024.
VietnamThailandTaiwanSingaporePhilippinesMalaysiaLaosJapanIndonesiaIndiaChinaMacaoHong KongCambodiaMyanmarBruneiBangladeshStrait of Malacca (illustrative)South China Sea route (illustrative)Vietnam coastal feeder (illustrative)South China SeaStrait of MalaccaGulf of ThailandSingaporeHanoiHo Chi Minh City

29free trade agreements, Singapore

Top 2025 partners: Taiwan, China, Malaysia, the US.

18free trade agreements, Vietnam

Reliant on Chinese supply chains, notably for electronics.

Civil unrest

Civil unrest

Rare in both. In Vietnam it has two known triggers.

Shophouses and festive street decorations along a road in Little India, Singapore

Singapore

December 2013

62injured

The Little India riot, about 300 people, was the worst public violence in four decades. Otherwise, almost none.

Workers welding metal structures in an industrial workshop

Vietnam

May 2014

20+dead

Riots at foreign-owned factories after China moved an oil rig into disputed waters.

June 2018

~200arrested

Protests against 99-year land leases and the cybersecurity law.

China and land. Both episodes started with one or the other. Watch those two.

Industries

The industries most exposed to politics

Singapore

Office towers at Raffles Place, Singapore's financial district

Wealth management

S$6.07tn under management

Under scrutiny since the S$3 billion laundering case.

Light breaking through clouds over Pasir Panjang Container Terminal, Singapore

Shipping and bunkering

44.7m TEUs in 2025, a record

Downstream of every chokepoint from Hormuz to the South China Sea.

Server racks in a data centre

Data centres

US$330bn of investment to 2050

A build-out limited by land and power.

Vietnam

Aerial view of an industrial park in Thu Dau Mot, Binh Duong, Vietnam

Electronics

US$42bn to the US in 2025

23% of all exports; Samsung alone is 12%.

Shoe lasts, soles and leather uppers on a workbench

Footwear

US$11bn to the US in 2025

Out of US$29 billion exported, now under the 12.5% Section 301 tariff.

Wind turbines above the sand dunes of Binh Thuan, Vietnam

Energy

28 to 36% renewables by 2030

The revised power plan’s target, after 2023 blackouts that cost US$1.4 billion.

PoliticsTrade

The next 12 months, as we read it

Marina Bay, Singapore, at night

Singapore

Steady government and steady rules. The risk is external: tariffs, chokepoints, and sanctions compliance in the banks.

Vietnam

A leadership pushing for 10% growth, an investor upgrade this month, and a 12.5% US tariff with a pending US investigation of intellectual property enforcement.