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Politics & Risk

Briefing

1. Need to Know2. Risks & Constraints3. Money Matters4. Local Knowledge5. Political Weather6. ItinerariesQuestions
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Questions

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Eleven questions we are ready for

Select one to jump to its answer.

  1. Q1Which country is riskier?
  2. Q2What does the US tariff actually mean for a company making things in Vietnam?
  3. Q3Can I get my profits out?
  4. Q4Can a foreign company own 100% of its business?
  5. Q5How corrupt is Vietnam in practice, and what does it mean day to day?
  6. Q6Is Singapore's stability guaranteed?
  7. Q7What are the data rules if I run a platform or handle customer data?
  8. Q8What is the civil unrest risk?
  9. Q9Which industries are most exposed to politics?
  10. Q10What does the FTSE Russell upgrade mean?
  11. Q11What about disasters and safety for staff?

Q1GovernmentEconomyCorruption

Which country is riskier?

Different risks. Singapore's come from outside; Vietnam's come from inside.

Sovereign credit rating
Singapore: AAAAll three agencies
Vietnam: BB+Fitch, stable
Corruption Perceptions Index
Singapore: 3rdof 182 countries
Vietnam: 81stof 182 countries
Coface country risk
Singapore: A3Cut in 2025 on tariff uncertainty
Vietnam: BCut in June 2026 on oil-supply exposure

Both pay a 12.5% US tariff, but Vietnam also faces a US intellectual property probe and stricter data laws.

Q2EconomyTrade

What does the US tariff actually mean for a company making things in Vietnam?

12.5% on most goods since July 2026, the same as Singapore, after the 2025 rates of 20% and 40% were struck down.

Since July 2026

12.5%tariff

The Section 301 rate on products of Vietnam.

In 2025

20–40%tariff

20% on most goods, 40% if judged transshipped; struck down in February 2026.

Crocs, per 10 points of tariff

US$45ma year

The company’s own estimate.

Crocs, Q3 2025 guidance

170bpof margin

Expected off quarterly operating margin.

Watch the supply chain: 40% of Vietnam’s imports come from China.

Hands holding a Vietnamese dong banknote in front of Ha Long Bay

Q3FDI

Can I get my profits out?

From Singapore, freely. From Vietnam, once a year, after the paperwork.

Singapore

Any timeand in full

No capital controls, and no withholding tax on dividends.

Vietnam

Oncea year

After audited accounts and tax finalisation, with seven working days’ notice to the tax office.

A company with accumulated losses cannot remit at all.

Ho Chi Minh City skyline beside the Saigon River

Q4FDI

Can a foreign company own 100% of its business?

Usually. Singapore has no blanket cap; Vietnam closes some sectors and caps others.

Singapore

  • No blanket cap on foreign ownership.
  • Broadcasting is the exception: foreign holdings must stay under 49%.
  • Landed housing needs approval before a foreigner can buy it.

Vietnam

23sectors closed

62sectors with conditions

  • 49% caps in areas such as shipping and inland waterway transport.
  • 100% allowed in manufacturing-related services, consultancy, hotels and IT.
  • Since March 2026, 38 conditional lines are gone, and you can form the company before the investment certificate.
National Assembly Building of Vietnam, Hanoi

Q5TransparencyCorruption

How corrupt is Vietnam in practice, and what does it mean day to day?

Less each year, and the crackdown is real. Day to day, it shows up as delay.

Corruption Perceptions Index

41of 100

81st of 182 countries, up a point on 2024.

Central officials, 2025

23disciplined

Six of them face criminal charges.

Local leaders, 2025

46charged

Out of 98 disciplined.

Ho Chi Minh City, one period

~100projects unfunded

Officials avoid signing anything that could be questioned.

Parliament House, Singapore, with the Downtown Core behind it

Q6SecurityPolitics

Is Singapore's stability guaranteed?

At home, close to it. The risk comes from outside.

At home: May 2025 election

87 of 97seats

The PAP won with its vote share up, to 65.6%.

From outside: trade

“The end of an era.”

PM Wong on the 2025 tariffs and the rules-based trading system. Coface flags dependence on China and great-power tension.

Terrorism threat

Highofficial assessment

Driven by self-radicalisation, and held at high in September 2026.

Server racks in a data centre

Q7GovernmentIndustries

What are the data rules if I run a platform or handle customer data?

Vietnam can make you keep data in the country. Singapore licenses payments instead.

Singapore

Licensing, not localisation. Payments are regulated through the Payment Services Act.

Vietnam

Decree 53

24months, at least

Data kept in-country, if the Ministry of Public Security orders it.

Data protection law, 2026

5%of revenue

Maximum fine for cross-border transfer breaches.

Cybersecurity law, July 2026

24 hours

To take down content once told to.

Mastercard lists data-localisation mandates as a business risk in its own filings.

Aerial view of an industrial park in Thu Dau Mot, Binh Duong, Vietnam

Q8Civil unrest

What is the civil unrest risk?

Almost none in Singapore. Rare in Vietnam, and set off by China or land.

Singapore

December 2013

62injured

The Little India riot, the worst public violence in over four decades.

Vietnam

May 2014

20+dead

Riots at foreign-owned factories after China moved an oil rig into disputed waters.

June 2018

~200arrested

Protests over 99-year land leases and the cybersecurity law.

Q9Industries

Which industries are most exposed to politics?

In Singapore, the ones that move money, ships and data. In Vietnam, the ones that export or hold data.

Singapore

  • Wealth management. S$6 trillion under management, and a regulator that fined nine institutions after the 2023 laundering case.
  • Shipping. Record throughput in 2025.
  • Data centres. Held back by power and land.

Vietnam

  • Electronics. 23% of exports; Samsung alone is 12%.
  • Footwear and apparel. Now under the 12.5% Section 301 tariff.
  • Platforms and payments. Under the data decrees.
Landmark 81 and surrounding high-rises beside the Saigon River, Ho Chi Minh City

Q10EconomyFDI

What does the FTSE Russell upgrade mean?

Index money. Vietnam becomes an emerging market on 21 September.

From 21 September 2026

Emergingmarket

Up from frontier, to secondary emerging.

FTSE Russell's estimate

US$6bninflows

Passive money, from funds that track the index.

World Bank projection

US$25bnby 2030

At the top of its range.

Since July 2026

US$4,970per person

Income enough for the World Bank to class Vietnam as upper-middle-income.

A boat on a flooded street in Hoi An during rainy season

Q11Security

What about disasters and safety for staff?

In Vietnam, typhoons and roads. In Singapore, scams and the odd flash flood.

Singapore

S$913mlost to scams

In 2025. Scams, not street crime.

Flash floods are real but contained.

Vietnam

Typhoon Yagi, 2024

318dead

US$3.3 billion of damage. The season runs June to November.

2025

Records

The national rainfall record, and tidal records in Ho Chi Minh City.

Ten months of 2025

8,515road deaths

No motorbike rentals: without a Vietnamese licence it is illegal.